In a startling turn of events, false information regarding the approval of the iShares Bitcoin Spot ETF by BlackRock sparked a massive Bitcoin price surge yesterday, resulting in the premier cryptocurrency reaching a two-month high of approximately $30,200 (on Bitfinex). Even though Bitcoin retraced this move shortly after the revelation of the misinformation, the rapid price movement has left many crypto analysts speculating on the potential price impact should a Bitcoin Spot ETF gain genuine approval.
Remarkably, BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, remained a vocal supporter of Bitcoin following the event, stating in a TV interview yesterday that it exemplifies the “pent-up interest in crypto.” Due to securities laws and the pending ETF application, he refrained from mentioning “Bitcoin” directly. But Fink emphasized the growing demand, noting, “We’re hearing from clients around the world about the need for crypto,” and even referred to Bitcoin as a “flight to quality.”
Potential Impact Of ‘Real’ Spot ETF On Bitcoin Price
Reflecting on the market’s swift reaction to the fake news, macro analyst Alex Krüger remarked, “One thing is for sure. Whoever thinks the ETF is already priced in has just been proven wrong. Expect a +20% day move when approved.” However, a user named Troy countered this, suggesting that the market’s reaction was due to the unexpected nature of the news. Krüger responded, emphasizing that the SEC’s ETF news “rarely leaks” and would “likely still be front-runned”, especially by individuals already engaged in the crypto space.
Supporting this viewpoint, Christopher Inks, a seasoned trader and market psychology expert, responded, “I don’t disagree. Breaking out above ~$31K should see price rallying into $38-$40K as I’ve been saying.” He added, “Make no mistake, Bitcoin has been rallying for ~5 weeks already. Weekly chart gives a pretty clear five waves up and today’s pump follows the usual wedge completion scenario with an impulsive breakout above wedge resistance and immediate drop back into the wedge.”
Eric Weiss, the founder & CIO of the Blockchain Investment Group, commented on X (formerly known as Twitter), advising individuals, “You just got a slight glimpse of what the reaction to a spot Bitcoin ETF approval will look like. Act accordingly.”
Weiss elaborated on the potential long-term impact, stating that the real price appreciation will stem from “the ETFs taking in USD and buying Bitcoin, which will create a significant supply/demand imbalance and likely drive up the price of Bitcoin to all-time highs.”
Adding to the debate, Jeff Dorman, CIO at investment firm Arca, highlighted the significance of actual flows over announcements, stating, “Announcements don’t matter. Flows matter. Doesn’t matter how many headlines we get regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. No one is front running this news.”
He argued that true price action will manifest when the ETF gets authentic approval and large firms, such as BlackRock, commence their marketing initiatives. James Christoph responded, emphasizing the market’s predictive nature based on announcements. Dorman retorted, asserting that the real game begins post-approval. “An ETF approval is 100% guaranteed and well known. The only question is when.”
Dorman’s perspective draws from the historical trajectory of gold. The approval of the inaugural gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States in 2004 saw gold’s value rise dramatically. Gold’s value surged by roughly 350% over a decade, influenced by factors like enhanced investor accessibility and amplified demand driven by ETF issuers promoting gold as a vital portfolio asset.
Given that financial giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco are queuing up with their respective spot ETFs, a similar trend for Bitcoin is projected by many analysts.
At press time, the BTC price was at 28,473, above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at around $28,200, which also marked the key resistance over the past two months.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com